”Fields for Food or Fuel? Scenarios for a new biomass regime” was conceived as a collaborative scenario development project. Its basic aim is to bring together a range of parties concerned with the central underlying question – how the balance between global demand and supply of agricultural raw materials for food, feed and energy evolve in the next 20 years?

This question is particularly relevant against the background of two key developments in recent times: on the one hand there has been a rapid and significant increase of agricultural commodity prices over the last 18 months and although prices have declined more recently, price volatility remains important. The other very significant development is the emergence of bio-energy policies to bolster energy security and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

As a result, the dynamics of the emerging biomass regime are highly unpredictable. The supply and demand equilibria towards which the system will gravitate, will have important implications for hundreds of millions of people who spend a large part of their disposable income on food, or who earn their livelihood from food production. In addition, the viability of many different business sectors will be affected. Finally, there is the possibility of serious environmental damage if the transition to a new biomass regime is not well managed.

The process has been designed, facilitated and documented by the combined efforts of Giract and ShiftN. ShiftN is one of the partners in the International Certified Future Strategist programme.

This summary brochure reports the key findings resulting from this work.